The Roswell Effect: How Science Fiction Inspires Serious Science
Roswell, July 8, 1947 — Who knew that the headline of a local newspaper that day would launch a cultural phenomenon and a legacy of conspiracy theories? Or that the enduring mythology would stimulate new fields of modern science, pioneers, and visionaries?
The “Roswell Incident” is arguably one of the best examples of how speculative fiction can spin out of chaos to a level of greater, exponential chaos, which makes a story hard to control and buries the relevant message (any message, really). It's the kind of viral communication that happens by accident, because of the cultural conditions and political environment in which it occurs — despite the science or, more significantly, the lack of any credible evidence. It’s a vacuum of possibility where the chance is not necessarily zero, and that’s a quantum “both/and” tragedy and advantage.
So, that’s the gravity of such speculation, in that it requires a discipline if we want to use it as a tool of advantage. With great responsibility, speculative fiction plays a crucial role in the field of science research for several reasons. It stimulates the imagination, pushes the boundaries of what we consider possible, and often acts as a precursor to actual scientific advancements.
Astronomy had its ancient origins in astrological belief, though the two are quite different today. Both driven by curiosity and wonder, but one clearly based on the discipline of evidence, reproducible research, and the method for generating better questions to improve our understanding of the universe. The transition from astrology to modern astronomy is exemplified by figures like Tycho Brahe and Johannes Kepler. Both began their careers with interests in astrology but made groundbreaking contributions to observational and theoretical astronomy.
The fundamental discipline in science, as well as for all credible research, is not in proving that our beliefs are correct, but in finding out why our assumptions are wrong, and why.
"Frankenstein" by Mary Shelley is an early early science fiction novel exploring the consequences of experimentation and the ethical responsibilities of scientists.
"2001: A Space Odyssey" by Arthur C. Clarke envisions advanced space exploration technologies, artificial intelligence, and the evolution of human consciousness. It has inspired generations of scientists and engineers to pursue advancements in space travel and AI.
"The Martian" by Andy Weir provides a realistic depiction of a manned mission to Mars and the challenges of survival on a distant plane, influencing research and discussions at space agencies NASA and ESA.
Speculation does not necessarily equal science fiction. In 1959, The US Army developed a feasibility study, Project Horizon, to research and explore the opportunities and challenges of establishing a secret military base on the Moon. It was projected to cost $6 billion ($64 billion today), require 61 Saturn A-1 rocket launches and 88 Saturn A-2 launches to deliver 220 tonnes of cargo and a task force of 12 soldiers to operate the facility by December 1966. The project never made it beyond the feasibility stage. It was rejected by President Eisenhower when the responsibility for our space program was transferred from the US Navy and US Air Force to the civilian agency, NASA.
Volume I of the study is available as a PDF.
Ironically, also in 1959, the modern SETI era began when Frank Drake conducted the first search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) developing the “Drake Equation.” NASA joined in SETI efforts at a low-level in the late 1960s and in 1992, initiated a formal, more intensive, SETI program. Today, the science is now a global, public-private, scientific initiative led by agencies including NASA, the SETI Institute, European Space Agency, and the Center for Astrophysics.
Speculative fiction often tackles the ethical and societal implications of scientific advancements before they become reality. By doing so, it prepares scientists and the public to address the moral and ethical questions that may arise from new technologies and discoveries.
Many scientists cite speculative fiction as a major inspiration for their career choices. Stories about space exploration, advanced technologies, and futuristic societies can spark a lifelong interest in science and motivate individuals to pursue careers in scientific research.
Speculative fiction allows for the exploration of theoretical concepts in a narrative format. These stories can serve as a testing ground for ideas that may be too risky, expensive, or currently impossible to explore in real life. This narrative experimentation can provide valuable insights and frameworks for future scientific endeavors.
The extraordinary history and popularity of Roswell mythology demonstrates how even ideas that are later discarded as unscientific can play a crucial role in the development of scientific disciplines. It underscores the importance of keeping an open mind to speculative ideas while subjecting them to rigorous testing and observation – a principle that remains relevant in modern scientific research.
